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Why crypto matters

Global crypto markets are now facing their moment of truth as the broad-based slump in digital assets has intensified yet again in recent weeks. Should investors therefore bury digital assets and remember them as a mere outgrowth of the liquidity-driven bull market? Not in our view – quite the contrary.

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At its peak in mid-November last year, the asset class carried a total market value of nearly USD 3 trillion, accounting for more than 1% of global financial assets, and has since given back more than half of it. Even though the initial days of euphoria are over, investors should not expect digital assets to fade into obscurity. Granted, as the crypto market is facing its “Dotcom moment”, the narrative that digital assets will replace fiat currencies seems to have been debunked for good. However, digital assets will undoubtedly continue to influence our lives - probably to a far greater extent than we can imagine today.

Total market capitalisation of crypto assets

Apart from the potential to profoundly transform the legacy financial system, the proliferation of asset-encryption technologies and smart contracts also paves the way for tremendous improvement in business productivity and profitability. The adoption of digital assets could essentially mirror the adoption of the internet in the early 2000s.

In this context, the current consolidation phase triggered by deteriorating liquidity conditions is likely to have a cleansing effect – the wheat is being separated from the chaff – and ultimately, big winners will emerge in the space for the years to come.

What does it imply for portfolio construction? First and foremost, digital assets offer a new asset class that expands the risk and return spectrum beyond that defined by “traditional” alternatives, opening up the potential for an optimised risk-return relationship in portfolios. As digital assets are about to enter a phase of maturation, investors should start getting serious about them.

Performance

As we are confronted with an asset class that is slowly coming out of its infancy, predicting how digital assets will impact portfolios is no easy task – the return and volatility history is just too short to shape a well-informed guess using traditional modelling tools. That said, having a nominal allocation to digital assets in a multi-asset portfolio, such as a basket of leading coins, may improve risk-adjusted performance.

A backward-looking analysis – conducted by our Julius Baer Research colleagues Sipho Arntzen, Kelly Chia and Carsten Menke – reveals that adding a 1% allocation to Bitcoin compared to a reference portfolio consisting only of equally weighted allocations to US equities and US Treasuries would have improved risk-adjusted performance.[1,2] While the Bitcoin portfolio yields an annualised return of 10.5% (vs. 8.0% for the reference portfolio), annualised volatility would only have increased to 7.7% (vs. 6.3%).

Interestingly, while small allocations to Bitcoin enhanced the return earned per unit of risk, higher allocations to Bitcoin lead to an inferior risk-adjusted performance given a disproportionate increase in incremental portfolio volatility relative to incremental portfolio return. To be clear, extrapolation from the past using a relatively short time series of historical data of course has its flaws. Nevertheless, the exercise allows to identify key aspects worth bearing in mind. Above all, an investor eager to try his hand at digital assets should be able to live with the increased volatility, which is unlikely to subside in the near term.

Portfolio performance: scenario analysis

Once an investor has decided on an allocation, perhaps the most important question relates to position sizing. A study by the CFA Institute Research Foundation[3] suggests an allocation of 4% as an upper limit, as each additional 1% in Bitcoin proportionately increases maximum drawdown values by about 1%.

Further among key decision points is the rebalancing frequency. In unbalanced portfolios, Bitcoin would have quickly reached a dominant portfolio weight, which would have significantly harmed risk-adjusted returns, especially in recent years. This comes as no surprise, given that Bitcoin went through a significant boom-and-bust period after its initial peak in 2018. As with all volatile financial assets, investors are therefore advised to adopt a disciplined rebalancing strategy.

Diversification

To assess the merits of digital assets in a portfolio context, it is critical to understand their diversification capabilities. Over the past five years, digital assets have exhibited an average correlation of about 0.2 to global equities, indicating only moderate co-movement between the two asset classes. At the margin, correlation occasionally rose as high as 0.6, typically in a risk-off market environment. Put differently, digital assets only marginally contributed to smooth portfolio returns in times of market turmoil.

Observed correlation behaviour relative to long duration assets (i.e. risk assets) as well as digital assets’ dependency on liquidity conditions limits their diversification benefits. In the long run, however, correlations could be expected to decline as digital assets mature, differentiate themselves in terms of their value proposition, and attract different kinds of investors, enhancing their role as portfolio diversifiers.

In a nutshell, we appreciate the optionality offered by a small allocation to digital assets in a portfolio context. By giving up a few percentage points of allocation, investors gain exposure to potentially disruptive scenarios brought about by the blockchain technology and decentralised finance. Prior to an investment, however, investors are strongly advised to adequately educate themselves due to the inherent risks associated with digital assets.

To find out more, read our e-brochure or download the full report below and explore why crypto matters.


[1] See Julius Baer Research Focus (24 January 2022) – Digital Assets: Balancing Risks and Returns in a Portfolio.
[2] The investing period starts at the beginning of 2012 and rebalancing occurs on a quarterly basis.
[3] CFA Institute Research Foundation (2021) - Cryptoassets: The Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Cryptocurrency for Investment Professionals.

Crypto Matters

While buying a cup of coffee or a loaf of bread with crypto coins is likely to remain a challenge in the years to come, digital assets as a whole will continue to gain importance with every day that passes. This is because digital assets and their underlying technology are firmly located at the heart of the next technological revolution that is reshaping the world across societies and economies, i.e. Web 3.0.

We have deliberately kept the language in this brochure as simple as possible. It is our belief that understanding the importance of digital assets for our future should not be hidden behind technical jargon. We hope you enjoy reading this brochure as much as we enjoyed writing it

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