Today, many celebrated winegrowing regions sit primarily at mid-latitudes – in places such as California, southern France, northern Spain and Italy, Barossa in Australia, Stellenbosch in South Africa and Mendoza in Argentina. These zones combine warmth sufficient for grape ripening with relatively dry conditions that minimise the risk of disease. But climate change is reshaping both the geography and the future of winemaking.
These heartlands are under mounting pressure. With modest warming (below 2°C), production is still possible, provided growers adapt with drought-resistant rootstocks, revised vineyard management and irrigation. In more severe scenarios, however, up to 90 per cent of lowland and coastal vineyards in Spain, Italy and Greece could disappear by the end of the century. High-altitude sites will only be able to offset a fraction of this loss. Overall, traditional winegrowing areas could shrink by 20-70 per cent depending on the warming pathway.
The grapevine migration to the north
At the same time, opportunity is shifting northward. Given that Atlantic-facing regions are less vulnerable, climatically suitable vineyard areas in northern Europe could expand by as much as 60 per cent by 2100. Grapes are already thriving in places once considered too cold, and entrepreneurial producers are seizing the opportunity to establish vineyards in new frontiers.
The origins of wine date back thousands of years: from the earliest wineries and the industrialised vinification of ancient Greece, to the development of terroirs and today’s vast, meticulous estates. Winemakers around the world have met ever-evolving challenges head-on; now, as the climate is changing, the resilience and adaptability of wine-lovers is taking them in new directions, sometimes literally. Places that would never previously have been suited to winemaking are becoming viable. Thanks to a blend of sophisticated new technology and the enthusiasm of inspired wine-lovers, the winemaking world has a new vanguard.
Sweden sits on this frontier and holds some of the most exciting, emergent wineries. When Johan and Heather Öberg bought a family holiday home on the beautiful Bjäre Peninsula – nearly 70 miles north of Malmö, and further north than many would ever expect to find vineyards – they saw potential. “There were five hectares rented out to a local farmer that looked like they’d be good for vines,” says Johan. “We said, well, we’ll plant 300 vines and see what happens.” And so, Thora Vingård was born. Today, they have 53,000 vines on 11 hectares, and their passion for food and wine has grown too.
Crucially, they didn’t just leap in: they looked at the figures and gathered the evidence. When it comes to “passion investing”, it’s tempting to put emotions and personal interest first, says Cyril Demaria-Bengochea, Head of Private Markets Strategy. “This can be a trap. Investing should remain a rational, logical, thoroughly assessed and documented endeavour.” Johan, part of BCG's global leadership team for principal investors and private equity, says he understands the balance between wine as an opportunity and wine as a passion.
The Öbergs connected with a small research project (since acquired), which had planted five small plots to assess the viability of growing vines on the peninsula. They found that rising temperatures provide a longer growing season, while the marine breeze sweeping in from the Kattegat strait reduces disease pressure. With this insight, they chose to pursue biodynamic farming practices, which are kinder to the grapes, the soil and the environment.
In keeping with their biodynamic philosophy, the Öbergs have also introduced beehives among the vines. The bees do more than pollinate the surrounding flora; they create a natural balance that helps push out wasps, one of the vineyard’s most prevalent nuisances.
“The bees are our best workers,” says Heather. Their presence supports the wider ecosystem of the vineyard, boosting soil health and plant resilience in line with biodynamic principles. As a bonus, the honey harvested each season is bottled and sold in small quantities through their boutique – another expression of the estate’s commitment to craft, quality and community.
Life on the new wine frontier is thrilling yet challenging. The Öbergs have been bold, defying advice to focus entirely on Solaris, a hybrid grape variety developed in the 1970s specifically designed for cooler climates. “We wanted to make the best possible red wine, so we also planted Pinot Noir,” Johan says. They found that both worked, and introduced other traditional varieties – the next boundary they are pushing is planting Malbec and Cabernet Franc.
They are supported by two talented young French oenologists with a strong background in biodynamic agriculture, Romain Chichery and Emma Berto. “Where else will you be able to say, I was one of the first winemakers?” says Chichery. “France is still not the most open-minded of winemaking areas; here, we have been given huge responsibility at an early age to build this for the long term.”
“Working in Sweden gives us a freedom we would never have in France,” Chichery continues, “where tradition and regulations set such firm boundaries.” But, he adds, it also means adapting to the cooler, damper climate. In hotter regions, more leaf canopy is retained to protect the grapes – in Sweden it is the opposite. Leaves are picked to allow more sunlight to reach the fruit and to help reduce humidity.
Both collaboration and community are important to the Öbergs. This is one reason they have also opened a restaurant, Flora. Head Chef Tobias Millqvist leads the kitchen with a philosophy he calls ‘det platsrelaterade köket’ - a place-driven approach that reflects the surrounding landscape. Working closely with local farmers and producers, Millqvist crafts delicious, wine-friendly dishes from products grown, raised or foraged locally. It’s a draw for tourists, but also a community hub: the neighbouring potato farmers, wary at first, now assure the Öbergs that if a table is free, they can be there in 15 minutes.
This combination of energy, strategy and investment in community bodes well for the wine world. It is also an area of opportunity for professional private capital investors who can bring welcome liquidity and expertise. “Challenges such as adapting to climate change are often part of managers’ transformation playbooks,” says Demaria-Bengochea. “They can implement technologies and automation as well as help improve supply chains, optimise cashflow, revamp marketing and distribution and increasingly, use data and insights to enhance efficiency.” The private equity sector can support companies’ organic development, or can help drive transformation via acquisitions and leveraged buy-out funds.
According to Julius Baer’s 2024 Global Wealth and Lifestyle Report, there is strong enthusiasm among HNWIs whose expenditure on fine wine has risen substantially in the last 12 months in Europe (40 per cent) and North America (30 per cent). To build on that requires foresight, flexibility and an appetite for transformation – both in the wine world and the investment sphere. Working together is the key to success.
Fund managers’ support of the companies in their portfolio creates value for both sides in the event of a resale further down the line. Wine is an extremely promising area for investment, despite the global challenges, or perhaps because of them, since nothing better demonstrates a sector’s resilience than adapting and thriving in difficult conditions. Just ask a Swedish winemaker.