Moderated growth with signs of recovery
According to provisional results from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the Swiss economy grew by 1.4 per cent over the full year 2025. Although growth therefore remained well below the long-term average, it still exceeded the previous year’s figure (2024: +1.2 per cent). While the challenging international environment weighed on the export-oriented industrial sector, private consumption in particular, together with domestic services such as healthcare, communications and hospitality, provided positive impetus. At the same time, indications of a slight economic recovery are increasing. The upturn in the European economy, particularly in Germany, can again be expected to provide increasing support to the Swiss export sector. However, in view of ongoing geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the environment remains challenging.
No change to monetary policy
Whereas inflation has stabilised at a moderate level in individual European countries and in the Eurozone overall, price pressure in Switzerland remains very low. In December 2025, Swiss inflation stood at just 0.1% in a year-on-year comparison, which puts it not just within the target bandwidth of the Swiss National Bank, but also well below the levels recorded in most European countries. Given this background, the SNB left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.0%. In the short term there is no indication of either a meaningful rise in inflation or growing deflationary momentum, hence no further interest rate steps are expected in either direction for the time being.
Powerful demand conducive to rising prices
The Swiss real estate market’s status as a safe haven and the scarce availability of high-yielding investment alternatives are increasing the appeal of this market for many investors, leading to a rise in the number of capital market transactions. In combination with the low market liquidity, this intensifies upward pressure on prices. The prices of both upmarket owner-occupied housing and residential investment properties can therefore be expected to rise further.
Key figures at a glance
| Forecast 2026 | Ø last 10 years | |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| Inflation | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Unemployment rate | 3.1% | 2.7% |
| Growth in no. of households | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| New-build rate (residential) | 1.0% | 1.1% |
As of December 2025. Sources: Julius Baer, SNB, SECO, Wüest Partner, FSO