The US Supreme Court ruling and its aftermath confirm what investors have learned the hard way: US trade policy is erratic and often hostile. Yet it also simplifies the near-term map. Following Friday’s US Supreme Court ruling, the president immediately announced a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which he raised to 15% on Saturday.
If these investigations take longer than 150 days, the US Congress would need to vote on an extension of the Section 122 tariffs, which is a delicate matter so close to the November midterm elections. Nevertheless, despite the looming uncertainty, it is certain that tariffs will stay with us at least until July, and possibly for longer, when the investigations are completed.
Why are tariff refunds now in the headlines?
For companies, the US Supreme Court ruling opens the door to seek refunds on duties paid under the IEEPA tariffs. The Supreme Court left the implementation to the lower courts. Although the refund process may take months or even years, a substantial share of the revenue collected under IEEPA in 2025 will likely be returned to firms – as featured in our Number of the Week.
What is the impact of Trump’s 15% global tariff decision?
From a global perspective, replacing the reciprocal and fentanyl-trade-related tariffs with a universal 15% tariff shifts the distribution of winners and losers. Countries previously hit by higher tariffs – such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Canada, and several Southeast Asian economies – now face lower average rates. In contrast, allies like the UK, the EU, South Korea, and Japan will see higher effective tariffs once all existing tariffs are taken into account.
The same logic applies at the equity level: the game shifts from broad country-driven performance to sector and stock selection. Retail and apparel may breathe a sigh of relief on reduced headline uncertainty, while some cybersecurity names just reminded investors how quickly narrative shifts can hit crowded trades.
By pivoting to a 15% global tariff, Washington effectively replaces a messy, partner-by-partner negotiation with a flat surcharge. That is why we read it as a unilateral value added tax (VAT): it taxes imports broadly, lifts domestic price levels at the margin, and is politically easier to sell than it is to reverse.
What investors should keep in mind
The US Supreme Court has clipped Trump’s IEEPA tariff tool, forcing a new chapter in the trade-war saga. Paradoxically, this lowers uncertainty in the short run, as markets now have a simpler 15% global baseline, but raises it over the medium term as Washington reaches for other levers. Treat tariffs like a unilateral US VAT: broad, blunt, and sticky. In the new scorecard, formerly harder-hit partners such as China, India, and Brazil look like relative winners, while preferred ones such as the UK lose their relative edge.
Macroeconomic data is mixed but not disastrous. Q4 US growth fell to 1.4% due to the partial government shutdown, while the core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) remains sticky, keeping the Fed cautious. Europe, meanwhile, is showing green shoots, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI back above 50.
The message for portfolios is that the picture remains ‘more of the same’ and does not mark a disruptive regime break. Stay invested, keep a slight tilt towards longer duration where it is paid, keep rotating away from the ‘US only’ trade into Europe and selective emerging markets, and keep a sleeve of real assets as insurance.
This week’s key risk is not tariffs per se, but how markets digest Fed communication and NVIDIA’s results against this new, flatter-tariff backdrop. As for the fear of becoming obsolete, it may be time to consider cautiously entering some of the heavily oversold names.