Secular Outlook 2019 - 2023

As 2018 drew to a close, we were confronted with a difficult set of circumstances. Politics were increasingly influencing financial markets. The supremacy of monetary over fiscal policy reached an extreme mix of financial repression, especially in the euro area. Citizens in the West were turning against established political parties, while in the US, monetary normalisation was coupled with a radical shift to fiscal stimulus.

Every decade is characterised by a different economic and investment environment. The outperformers of the previous decade are unlikely to stay at the top of the performance league tables in the next decade.

At Julius Baer, we adopt a forward-looking investment approach, structuring our asset allocation to capture returns resulting from secular trends. We strategically position our clients’ portfolios according to these secular trends. In our annual Secular Outlook process, we identify key macroeconomic and capital market trends, as well as key risk factors for the next five years.

Investing is and always will be at the frontier between art and science. By sharing our Secular Outlook with you, we hope to help you position your portfolio for the next five to ten years.

 

In our annual Secular Outlook process, we identify key macroeconomic and capital market trends, as well as key risk factors for the next five years.

2018 in review: What can we learn for 2019?

“2018 has been very different from 2008 or 2000,” says Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon in his video outlook. Instead, he draws parallels with the situation in 1987, when markets recovered rapidly after a sudden correction.

Further information

Are you interested in learning more about the CIO House View? Your relationship manager would be delighted to provide you with additional information.