Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, on the question whether we can learn from the past to predict the future.

Economics was never meant to be used for forecasting, which is why whenever you ask economists about the next financial crisis, they open their financial history books. While others already started predicting the next financial crisis, we would like to define its historical nature and timeline. We share the view that financial crises will happen in the future just as they have happened in the past, but we think that a 2008-like meltdown or worse is quite unlikely anytime soon.