It smells like there is a certain amount of fatigue emanating from the recent relentless inflation debates. Structural or cyclical? Will we ever know? We continue to favour the scenario of inflation pressure being cyclical and easing over the summer.
However, evidence confirming this or proving the contrary may be weeks, if not months, away. Some consider this as being in limbo, while others take it as an opportunity to enjoy the bright side of life as far as contingency measures allow.
Investors are now exhausted from the inflation debates. We confirm our view that the inflation spike is transient, but hard evidence may be weeks, if not months, away.
Meanwhile, we reiterate our positive stance on financials.
A look into the crystal ball
Indeed, this is one of the first weeks in this busy year of 2021 when there is not too much going on, at least as far as scheduled events are concerned. There is the usual tea-leaf reading before the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, and then some flash purchasing managers’ indices will be released to close the week on Friday. In the meantime, pandemic news is bound to fill any vacuum in between, especially since the recent flare-ups in Asia have raised some concerns, and the recent successes in containing the virus in the US and Europe have yet to be confirmed.
Conclusion for investors
Hence, investors will likely stay on their toes but could use any downtime to reconsider their view on financials. We reiterate our positive view on the sector given where valuations are and rates are heading. The view on the NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector Index deserves some reconsidering too. We see some cracks in the seemingly endless outperformance from a technical analysis point of view. Therefore, some reshuffling into old industries is warranted. And before worrying about another bear market looming, please consider our number of the week.
Note: Due to a public holiday next week, the Research Weekly will return on 31 May.
Number Of The Week
What is going on in the markets? Julius Baer’s experts share their views.